Low Turnout Tells Tale of Iranian Vote
Conservative Victory Seen as Wide but Shallow

By Karl Vick
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, February 23, 2004; Page A14

TEHRAN, Feb. 23 -- Iran's most troubled election in a quarter-century appeared Monday to have produced a record low turnout, leaving religious conservatives with control of parliament but only a dubious claim of representing a greater share of the population than the 10 percent of Iranians who have traditionally provided their base.

In a country that in three previous elections voted overwhelmingly for reformist candidates who were barred from Friday's ballot, about half of Iran's 46 million eligible voters stayed home, the Interior Ministry said.

State-run media repeatedly said the turnout was 10 points higher, about 60 percent. Officials from the Interior Ministry, which conducted the election, alluded to pressure from hard-liners to doctor reports to reflect a more participatory electorate.

"We have that figure, but we cannot release it to you," said one official, when asked how many ballots were used Friday -- the quickest way to assess turnout. With a tight smile, he explained, "The figure has to be approved by the Guardian Council," the hard-line body that barred reformers from running.

Turnout was the only issue left in suspense here after the 12-member council, which is appointed by Iran's top cleric, refused to allow about 2,400 reformist candidates to appear on the ballot. When outraged activists called for a boycott, the hard-line establishment answered with the full force of the state media monopoly, devoting every channel and radio station to around-the-clock exhortations to join the multitudes shown in crowded scenes of voting that critics called staged.

"This was a major mobilization," said Hossein Rassam, an independent political analyst. "The reality is the conservatives took advantage of this spirit of patriotism among Iranians. They manipulated it and were successful.

"The reformists didn't really have a chance."

The conservative victory appeared wide but shallow. In Tehran, the capital, 30 available seats appeared to be going to conservatives.

But four years ago, when reformers were on the ballot, the total for one candidate surpassed by 100,000 the entire turnout of 1.7 million in the capital on Friday. Mohammad Reza Khatami, the brother of the president and a leading reformer whom the Guardian Council barred along with more than 80 other incumbents, collected 1.8 million votes in that election.

"I don't think this was a great success" for conservatives, Rassam said. "It was very illuminating, because conservatives can now see how many people they really have."

Ballots were still being counted in Tehran early Monday, but the top vote-getter this year appeared to be Gholamali Haddad-Adel, head of the minority caucus for the last four years.

Haddad-Adel headed the slate of candidates advertised as approved by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose daughter married Haddad-Adel's son.

The slate, dubbed Developers of Islamic Iran, included several former commanders of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, as well as founders of the Basiji militias, the paramilitary groups that led the bloody charges against student demonstrations during the past few years.

"These are the foreigners' words and you had better avoid them," Haddad-Adel said to an Iranian reporter who used a Sunday news conference to ask about Iran's "closed" political system.

But the new parliament will also include moderates and pragmatic conservatives, as well as independents who line up with the majority. And although the new parliament's leadership appears to be closely aligned with the ruling clerics, some conservative analysts said it would look a lot like the old one and would be dominated by reformers.

"In the new phase we'll try to carry the flag of reform," said Amir Mohebian, editor of Rasalat newspaper and a conservative who has worked hard in recent years to tone down the hard edges of the ruling establishment.

Mohebian said the conservatives who take office in May will attempt to rehabilitate the conservatives' image. He predicted legislation aimed at stimulating Iran's economy, which has been unable to produce jobs for a massive baby boom generation. He also said the conservatives would seek to cooperate with Iran's reformist president, Mohammad Khatami.

Khatami, who has been silent since reluctantly overseeing an election he termed unfair, must step down in 2005. Conservatives hope to take his office and thus dominate every official position in Iran, including the appointed offices that rank above all.

"In the parliament, I think we can improve our image with the public and try to shape a new mentality to help us in the presidential election," Mohebian said.

A leading reform strategist saw a different future.

Mostafa Tajzadeh, a leader of the largest reform party, said the dynamics of the law-making body would be driven by the knowledge that the conservative side won its majority by barring competitors. That will give reformers clout well beyond their numbers, he predicted, citing precedents in at least one previous parliament.

"You've got to pay attention to this fact: The minority members will actually be representing a majority of the population," Tajzadeh said.

That calculation assumes the reformers remain in favor with Iranians. Some prominent reformers have questioned whether the public would still support them after the election. Even before the disqualification controversy clouded the legitimacy of Friday's contest, turnout was expected to be low enough to endanger the reformers. Many Iranians have disengaged from politics after years of stalemate between conservative clerics and reformers who have been scarcely able to reduce the clerics' clout.

Analysts said the coming conservative majority in parliament could end the logjam.

Looming over it all, analysts agreed, was whether the unelected clerics who essentially handpicked the new parliament will empower it to act.

"This is the dilemma the conservatives are continually facing," Tajzadeh said. "The principal question is: Even after they have the elected portion of the state, will they give it any power?"